Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
