Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
