It was two months ago that the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. After the in-form star swept in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six matches, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding this season, even as the positive results have accumulated.
According to Opta, in only two games have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has just won 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – however at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
